World Population 7 Billion
November 1, 2011 by staff
World Population 7 Billion, Feeling claustrophobic? You are not alone. According to United Nations demographers, 6999999999 earthlings other potentially felt the same on Monday, when world population exceeded seven billion. But if you prefer to projections by the U.S. Census Bureau, you have a little breathing room. The office estimates that despite the world’s population increasing 215,120 per day, will not reach seven million dollars in about four months.
How demographers duel reconcile a difference, starting Monday, 28 million, which is more than all the people in Saudi Arabia?
They do not.
“Nobody knows the exact number of people in the world,” Gerhard Heilig, chief of the section of population estimates and projections of the Population Division of the United Nations recognizes.
Even the best surveys of each government has a margin of error of less than 1 percent, he said, which would result in the total sum of “a window of uncertainty of the previous six months or six months after October 31.” A margin of error but only 2 percent means that the estimated seven billion Monday was actually 56 million dollars (which is more people than were counted in South Africa).
Watch the world’s population the Census Bureau gives the pretext for greater accuracy. It is projected that about 255 people are born every minute (about 367,000 a day), while about 106 die (approximately 153,000 per day). At that rate, natural growth in the world would be about 78.5 million a year, or more than the total population of France, Britain and Thailand.
“We do not use a population clock,” said Mr. Heilig. “It’s a bit silly.”
The two agencies start with the census and other vital statistics from over 228 countries and other political entities, then the births and deaths of the project, the estimate of the migration of refugees and mortality rates and AIDS project other epidemics.
The differences in the interpretation of individual figures and how they fit into account disparities in general. In general, the projections of the Office of the rear of the United Nations for over a year (the population will reach eight million in 2026 or 2025, contained, respectively).
“Realistically, the uncertainty is at least 2 percent and that 75 percent of the world for which they have an official count or estimate the past,” said Joel E. Cohen, director of the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller University and Columbia University, Monday. “Now, the world’s population growth is estimated at 1.1 percent per year. Thus each percent of uncertainty translates into uncertainty the total count of nearly a year to the date on which the population grows beyond a certain threshold. In short. World population passed seven billion sometime in the last year or two, or next year or two, most likely ”
Professor Cohen added, however, “Today is as good as any to be aware of the problems of the world and start taking steps to resolve them.”
Daniel Goodkind, a demographer at the Population Division of the Bureau of the Census, said different estimates were still “very close”.
“Although birth rates and death rates have fallen dramatically since the 1960s,” he said, “death rates have fallen faster than birth rates. The cumulative effect of the excess of births over deaths in recent decades has led to a milestone achievement of successive million people every 12 or 13 years. ”
Dr. Goodkind said the agency revised its projections on a continual basis, while the United Nations made revisions every two years. Still, the projects of the Census Bureau that the world population will reach seven billion by next March 12 – within six months of the United Nations, the window of a 1 percent uncertainty.
So who is right? “We’re not exactly in sync, but we are very close,” said Goodkind. “I’m not a betting man.”
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