Weaker Hurricane Mexico Resorts
October 27, 2011 by staff
Weaker Hurricane Mexico Resorts, Rina hurricane headed for the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico as a Category 1 storm early Thursday as Mexican authorities evacuated hundreds of tourists fled low-lying areas and Cancun and other resorts.
South Florida has fallen in the forecast cone, but you can experience the rainy weather during the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds were near Rina 75 mph early Thursday, down from 110 mph. The storm is about 115 miles south of Cozumel, moving northwest at about 6 mph.
Rina is expected to remain a hurricane when it hits or passes over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to emerge as a weaker system on Friday.
However, the predicted path of the storm becomes more difficult after Friday because of concerns about how Rina will interact with an air channel and the top-level cold front moves into the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters say the storm will snap to the east on Friday, and South Florida could begin to see the rain then – but that would not from the cold front, the storm, said meteorologist Dennis Feltgen NHC.
And if enough Rina fades after encountering wind shear and the cold front, the storm can not take a big hit.
“The weaker of the system gets, the more difficult it will be to go very far to the east at all,”said Feltgen.
Rina is located about 180 kilometers southeast of Cozumel Wednesday evening, toward the west-northwest near 6 mph hurricane force winds extend up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 105 miles. This morning, Rina maximum sustained winds reached 110 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.
While the storm is expected to weaken and may even already peaked, Feltgen said, there is disagreement about the future path of the more than a dozen NHC computer models used to track hurricanes.
Some forecast that the storm eastward through the Straits of Florida and the Atlantic Ocean, Rina and others call for a hairpin turn south along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. But others predict that the storm will move east and then southeast near or over western Cuba.
Despite the conflicting computer predictions, almost everyone agrees that Rina will miss the state of Florida.
“There was only one of them had any chance of reaching the southern Florida peninsula,”said Feltgen computer models,” and that’s been discounted. That is the outlier.”
However, five days of CNH maintains forecast of South Florida in the dreaded “cone of incertidumbre”-an area that extends about 250 miles in each direction from the center of the storm – for next weekend Halloween.
In Key West, where the 10-day party called Fantasy Fest runs through this weekend, the forecast is for a storm.
“In Key West, it will be stormy and windy with a decent chance of showers to develop over the weekend,” said Matthew Bloemer, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Key West.
The organizers of the Fantasy Fest, which is themed “Aquatic Afrolic” this year, say they have made changes to the climate.
Emergency Management Monroe County have also been monitoring Rina, but no action is planned spokeswoman Becky Herrin said.
“The bottom line is we do not expect any significant impact of a hurricane in the Keys,” Bloemer said.
For South Florida, the threat of a storm of Halloween has echoes of Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which hit Oct. 24. Forecast as a Category 1 storm that many do not take seriously, Wilma was a wide swath of damage, the darkness and death, killing 25 people and knocking out power to more than three million homes and businesses in Florida.
As the potential for impact on South Florida fell, Rina still hanging over filled resort on Mexico’s Caribbean coast. The Associated Press reported that tourists are fleeing Cancun airport crowded Rina on Wednesday as Mexican government officials evacuated some fishing communities and coastal schools closed. The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning for the northeastern coast from Cancun to San Felipe.
Feltgen said the area could start to feel hurricane conditions early Thursday, eight to 16 inches of rain on the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Storm surge could push water levels up to two to four feet above normal tide level.
Storms this afternoon in the hurricane season from June to November, are quite common in Florida.
“One of the most favored areas for development is the northwestern Caribbean Sea,”said Feltgen.” Wind shear is light. Water temperature is hot.”
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