New Hampshire Primary Results
January 11, 2012 by staff
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has established himself as the leader – the front runner. It is Romney’s to lose, yet this seems like a year when we need to expect that the front runner will have a hard time holding on to a lead. Romney still has at least one state to go before he can be declared as the clear Republican choice to face Obama.
There is a looming fight for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, January 21st. With only about 2% of the delegates chosen in Iowa and New Hampshire, this is looking like a three man race. Expect to see Texas Representative Ron Paul and former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich to take this fight past January and past South Carolina.
It feels like it is over, because Romney decimated the competition in New Hampshire. Romney ended up with about 39% of the vote with Texas Representative Ron Paul a distant second with 23%. Only former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman had a respectable showing with 17%. New Hampshire will go down as a strong victory for Romney.
This primary season is different from past primaries. Republicans have changed most of the early primary rules so that they have gone away from a “winner-take-all” system to proportional voting in the early primaries. This translates into a longer race. Romney would have the nomination locked down if all the primaries allowed the winner to take all of the delegates from every state and they used the old system.
Iowa ended up being a three way tie even thought the media declared it a big victory for Romney. Romney was declared the winner with 24.6% of the vote and 30,015 votes. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum was second with 24.5% of the vote and 30,007 votes. A relatively close third was Texas Representative Ron Paul with 21.4% of the vote and 26, 219 votes. The irony is that Romney, Santorum and Paul all will receive the 6 delegates a piece to represent them at the Republican National Convention this summer.
New Hampshire is being declared as Romney’s big win, yet only 12 delegates were chosen. If you add up New Hampshire’s 12 and Iowa’s 28 delegates, you get a grand total of 40 delegates chosen so far for the convention. There are 2,286 delegates that will attend the convention, yet the media would lead you to believe that this race is almost over with only 2% of all the delegates chosen.
South Carolina shall be the last stand for many candidates. Jon Huntsman had a respectable showing in New Hampshire, yet he seems like he is on borrowed time in this campaign. His New Hampshire showing may be the high water mark for his campaign. He needs to repeat his respectable New Hampshire performance to take the fight past South Carolina.
Texas Governor Rick Perry has pushed all his chips into the pile in South Carolina. He has had some awful showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Clearly, South Carolina is the last stand for Rick Perry in South Carolina. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum was a handful of votes withing a huge Iowa victory, yet he could not transfer his momentum from Iowa into a New Hampshire strong showing.
The three remaining candidates taking the fight to South Carolina and beyond are Romney, Paul and Gingrich. Ron Paul has a strong following that has allowed him to post a 3rd place finish in Iowa and a 2nd place finish in New Hampshire. He believes that as other candidates drop out of the race, he can become the alternative to Mitt Romney.
Although Newt Gingrich has declared South Carolina his to win, I expect him to hang in the race in order to be the last man standing against Romney. He also is seeking to be the conservative alternative to the moderate Romney.
Many a candidates career will be made or broken in the first primary in the south. South Carolina may be the last stand for a few candidates, yet Romney is clearly seeking to beat down his opposition to end it.
After Iowa and New Hampshire many Republicans feel like the end is near, yet this year seems to have tossed the rules and playbook aside. Expect the next week and a half to be a very interesting fight to see if Republicans have settled for Romney or if they are willing to anoint yet another candidate to upset the Republican field.
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