John Tierney New York Times
March 28, 2012 by staff
John Tierney New York Times, In 2006, New York Times columnist John Tierney published the equation above that was developed to calculate the probability that a celebrity couple would stay married.
The variables in the mathematical model included: the relative fame of the husband and wife, their ages, the length of their courtship, their marital history, and the sex-symbol factor (determined by looking at the woman’s first five Google hits and counting how many show her in skimpy attire, or no attire).
Now, with more than five years of follow-up data and empirical testing, John Tierney reported in yesterday’s New York Times that there is firm statistical support for the “Sundem/Tierney Unified Celebrity Theory.” For example:
“The 2006 equation correctly predicted doom for Demi Moore and Ashton Kutcher; Pamela Anderson and Kid Rock; and Britney Spears and Kevin Federline. It also forecast that Will Smith and Jada Pinkett would probably not make it to their 15th anniversary, in December 2012; so far, they’re still married, but gossip columns are rife with reports of a pending split.
On a happier note, the 2006 equation identified two couples with a good chance to make it to their fifth anniversary, in 2010: Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner, and Matt Damon and Luciana Barroso. Sure enough, they made it (and are still married).” But now Tierney and his co-author Garth Sundem have updated and refined the celebrity marriage prediction formula, and believe it now has even greater predictive power.
“Whereas the old equation measured fame by counting the millions of Google hits, the new equation uses a ratio of two other measures: the number of mentions in The Times divided by mentions in The National Enquirer.
“This is a major improvement in the equation,” Garth says. “It turns out that overall fame doesn’t matter as much as the flavor of the fame. It’s tabloid fame that dooms you. Sure, Katie Holmes had about 160 Enquirer hits, but she had more than twice as many NYT hits. A high NYT/ENQ ratio also explains why Chelsea Clinton and Kate Middleton have better chances than the Kardashian sisters.”
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