May 11, 2011 by staff
Italy Earthquake, According to a rumor that has circulated on the Internet for months, Raffaele Bendandi, a pseudo-Italian who died in 1979, predicted that before his death that a massive earthquake attack in Rome on Wednesday, May 11.
No one is sure who actually made a prediction – his principal biographer is aware that he did – but regardless, in response, the Romans are paying attention and fleeing their city by the thousands.
More than 20 earthquakes have been beaten in Italy – none of the devastating earthquake Bendandi expected.
Working for this rumor is the fact that Bendandi, who also dabbled in astronomy, correctly guessed the approximate date of an earthquake in the region of the Adriatic in 1923, a feat for which he was later knighted. Does your prediction alleged posthumous happen too?
Geophysicists say no – almost certainly not. Not only are too chaotic to predict earthquakes, decades ahead of time, are not even foreseeable in the scales of days.
“Predicting an earthquake, you need a herald of some kind, and we still have to find something reliable,” said Tom Parsons, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). “Many things have been discussed in terms of searching for signs of electrical or gas, and pay attention to the behavior of animals, but none has proved reliable.”
Even if the seismologists were able to identify a precursor signal indicating that an earthquake was coming, “he was going to spend a few days before,” said Parsons little mysteries of life, a sister site to LiveScience – no more than three decades in advance. “Earthquakes and tectonic plates interact with each other in a very chaotic, so to make a long-term prediction would need to be able to foresee all the activities in the coming age 30. It is highly unlikely that someone able to do that. ”
On the other hand, if you were trying to predict an earthquake before long, it would be wise to choose a location above a major fault line is not Rome. “Earthquakes are certainly not common in Rome. Most activity takes place in Italy in the Apennines,” Parsons said, referring to the mountain range that runs through the center of Italy “boot” and in his toe. “You feel earthquakes in Rome, at times, but it happens in other locations. There are no major flaws lines beneath the city in terms of predicting a massive earthquake, as a kind of place is unlikely.”
Sometimes more seismic activity may suggest that an earthquake is imminent, but there have been rumors in Rome is raising concerns among seismologists. “To my knowledge, no, there has been no abnormal activity. If there was a reliable forecast had heard of it,” said Parsons. “Even if there is abnormal seismic activity, which happens all the time without a forecast. Foreshocking Sometimes events occur in clusters, but that only lead to a big event from 8 percent of the time.” [Inset: How Japan Quake aftershocks triggered]
The best decision, Parsons said, is preparing for the largest earthquake possible in a given area, rather than focusing on predictions of a given day.
“There is much interest in pursuing the predictions, but should be ready for the biggest earthquake possible in a given area and the modernization of the buildings to be able to withstand an earthquake of that magnitude,” he said.
“When you’re trying to predict an earthquake on a given day, you have chaos with people panicking and trying to leave the city -. I see that this is already happening in Rome is much better to understand the most likely event the coming years and build accordingly. “
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