Hurricane Season 2011
April 6, 2011 by USA Post
Hurricane Season 2011, (Reuters) - The 2011 season of Atlantic hurricanes will be above average activity and the possibility of more than 70 percent of at least one hurricane hitting the U.S. coast, forecasters from Colorado State University predicted on Wednesday.
The forecast of 2011 the CSU team respected activity followed a season last year that saw high levels of activity of hurricanes and storms, but no landfall on the U.S. coast.
Slightly lower estimates an early December, the CSU team said on June 1 to November 30 seasons named storms generate.
Of these, nine are expected to become hurricanes, with five major developing hurricanes of Category or higher on the scale five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity.
The outcome of the CSU in general agreement with predictions made for the 2011 season by other privateanlysts.
The 2010 season produced 19 named storms, tying the third most active season in 1887 and 1995, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Of those storms, became hurricanes, tying the second best season in. There were five major hurricanes in 2010.
The CSU team predicted a “72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coast in,” adding that the long-term average probability of this was 52 percent.
“Basically, the reason that the probability goes up is because we are talking about a hurricane season well above average,” said Philip Klotzbach, who heads the CSU team with meteorologist William Gray, who is known for his research on the prediction of the hurricane season.
“In general, the most active tend to have more landfalls,” Klotzbach said.
CSU saw a percent chance a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. coast Gulf of Mexico, where the oil and gas facilities. The long-term average for this was 31 percent.
Although there were surprisingly no U.S. landfall during the busy 2010 season, which Klotzbach called exceptional, saying the fee to be no U.S. landfall during an active season and were probably only “about 3 percent.”
He said the “primary uncertainty” over the latest projections of the CSU was derived from the possible climate warming Pacific sea surface due to the weather phenomenon El Ni? O, which tends to reduce the threat of storm activity in the tropical Atlantic.
“Right now I do not think that one (The Child) will be developed, but there are some signs that (the Pacific), has certainly warmed up a bit and there is that potential,” said Klotzbach.
“In June, if El Ni? O were actually to look like it is going to develop would have to reduce our forecast enough.,” added.
An average hurricane season brings storms, six hurricanes and two hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The region is still in a multidecadal period of higher hurricane activity.
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