October 12, 2011 by staff
Government Jobs, Governor Beverly. Perdue continues to blame high unemployment in North Carolina in a loss of government jobs as a result of budget cuts by the Republican-majority General Assembly. Perdue may be right, but the official information provided by the State Commission of Employment Security does not back up their claims.
Perdue allusion to large job losses in government this spring. In a Democratic fundraiser in April, Perdue suggests that the state budget proposed by the Republican leadership would lead to layoffs – perhaps 30,000 in all sectors of government and 18,000 in education alone.
Speaking to a group of economic developers in Charlotte September 19, Perdue said that “most” of 10.4 North Carolina percent unemployment rate was due to the loss of jobs in the public sector, according to a WSOC-TV report. At a luncheon of Greenville-Pitt County Chamber of Commerce the following day, Perdue said a recent jump in state jobless rate occurred because of losses of public sector employment, the Daily Reflector.
But monthly employment figures released a few days before the CES show a different picture. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate “jump” from 10.1 percent in July to 10.4 percent in August. However, ESC also reported a net increase of 13,600 seasonally adjusted jobs in the government.
At a minimum, it is premature to draw conclusions about an alleged relationship between levels of government employment, the unemployment rate, and the state budget. Due to the peculiarities of the seasonal adjustment methodology, ESC could bring a profit of seasonally adjusted jobs in the government in September. This report would not be an accurate accounting of public employment, but put Perdue and others who have been critical of the General Assembly at a dead rhetoric.
However, despite the lack of reliable figures today, Perdue spokesman Mark Johnson argues that the GOP is to blame for massive job losses in the public sector.
“Shortsighted and unnecessary cuts, the Republican resulted in the loss of thousands of jobs in education K-12 and thousands more in the university system,” Johnson said Carolina Journal. “Common sense tells you that these job losses push up unemployment, if not resolved, these losses hurt both our ability to maintain a well-trained workforce and remain competitive in the global market. It is worth noting since January 1 the state has seen an increase of about 34,000 jobs in the private sector. Of course, Governor Perdue will not be satisfied until all of North Carolina who wants a job has one. ”
Adjust the numbers
ESC acts as the local agent of the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces estimates of employment. The “seasonal adjustment” factor used by BLS for the work of public education in the summer, for example, is little more than conjecture. Is an estimate based on observations of the past several years the number of jobs that must exist if all schools were open throughout the year and no summer vacation.
A more reliable way toanlyze public employment is considered an actual count of jobs, the figure of the so-called non-seasonally adjusted and unadjusted. Since fiscal year that began on July 1 of the CES seasonally adjusted employment estimates show a net gain of 3,600 jobs in the state and local government. By contrast, the number of jobs are not adjusted for local education has plummeted – from 229 100 in May to 132,300 in July. Drops are typical in the summer when school is in recess. The number of jobs rose to 189,300 unadjusted in August and should increase further after the September report published Oct. 21.
CES officials defended their approach. Agency spokesman Larry Parker CJ said that the seasonally adjusted estimates are “accurate.” In a September 16 interview with television station WTVD Raleigh, vice president David Clegg said, “We are using the same methodology that has been used for decades. We are seeing the same snapshot of the economy of North Carolina each month.”
CES has been sharing data from their monthly employment reports to the governor a day before the report is released to the public.
Department of Public Information and the UNC report
A study of public school systems by the Department of Public Instruction, released in late August, showed 6300 jobs have been eliminated in the last four years – 3900 of them in previous years, when Democrats were in charge of the General Assembly and the governor’s office. A little more than 2,400 people have been fired from the current fiscal year was inaugurated in July.
A similar survey by the University of North Carolina system showed that the elimination of 487 full-time positions filled, 2,544 part-time positions held, and 1,487 vacancies. UNC-Charlotte and Elizabeth City State University reported that reductions do not fill full-time positions. UNC-Chapel Hill reported that it had eliminated 95 positions filled full time.
If the polls are correct, the job losses that total education of approximately 6,000, rather than predict the Perdue 18,000.
However, here there is no way of knowing whether these surveys are consistent with data from ESC. School systems can rely on the elimination of vacancies in different ways. Can not distinguish between an employee count and a count of jobs – and if the jobs are filled or unfilled. CES also emphasizes a number in the seasonally adjusted monthly, rather than the raw estimates.
BLS raw count of jobs in the North Carolina government is reduced to 100,000 every summer, because most public school teacher jobs are not counted during the summer.
CES Parker CJ said that most economists would agree on a more reliable method of measuring changes in government jobs would be to compare the numbers are not adjusted employment in September 2011 with September 2010.
The employment figures come from two separate statistical employment programs managed by the BLS. The unemployment rate comes from a U.S. survey National Census Bureau BLS monthly 60,000 households, with about 1,500 of them in North Carolina.
The count of jobs comes from the Current Employment Statistics program. It is based on a sample of private sector employers and government.
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