2011 Tour De France
July 5, 2011 by staff
2011 Tour De France, To my surprise, I love the Tour de France. Before attention is not paid at all, but in line a few years ago when first drawn to the observation of Lance Armstrong after my mother was diagnosed with cancer. I was hooked, and now you do not miss a second of it. I know there are all sorts of problems with drugs and the like, but I just do not care. These guys are very flamboyant athletes, and sport is ridiculously full of strategy, intrigue and drama. A great thing.
Another thing I really like the Tour de France it’s great to play. Due to the length of the event and the structure of teams, not really that many guys who can legitimately win the event, making it easier to disadvantage a lot of events.
The race is under way this year – two regular stages and the team time already on the books. The Tour de France possibilities remain open and ready to be sure, however, given that the race is still wide open that the bet is still very attractive. If you have not been paying attention this year, then we’ll come up to speed with a Tour de France betting predictions (all forecasts are from Bodog):
Alberto Contador (11/10) – Three-time winner remains the favorite to win the race, but he is in a difficult position after only three stages. He was involved in an accident at the end of the first stage, which found more than a minute behind most of the top contenders, and then a bad team time trial left him behind.
It seems as if out of it yet – which is still less than two minutes behind with hundreds and hundreds of miles of travel. In this position, however, is enormous. To recover this time you will have to break and get away with it. That would be more likely to happen in a big raise, and Contador is a very good climber.
The problem, however, is that it is becoming a movement to have Andy Schleck and other contestants stuck to him like a limpet. Last year, Contador won the race by just 39 seconds, and won everything that the margin of a brutal unsportsmanlike – it went away on a climb when Schleck lost the chain when the etiquette dictates that you wait until your opponent is ready to go again. Beyond that time, Schleck and Contador were neck and neck the whole way.
Contador takes a tremendous amount of luck to reach the top. I do not think you can justify your bet as the favorite in view of the facing and how strong and determined is Schleck.
So what has gone wrong with Count so far? Well, luck was a factor. He is working with a new team this year after leaving Astana, so the transition has not helped things – especially in the time trial. It could also cynically suggest that it is harder to ride fast when not drugged, and Contador has to be careful after being investigated for a positive result in the race last year. Personally, I think it’s just the karma of all the slimy things man has done in the past. He is so disliked as a man can be.
Andy Schleck (6.5) – Schleck has the dubious distinction of being the best driver who has never won the Tour – has finished second to Contador, twice. I think that streak will end before this race began, and now I am even surer.
Like Contador, who is with a new team this year? He started new Leopard Trek team with his former director. Contador really took first place in Saxo Bank Schleck vacant. Schleck seems more comfortable with his movement, though – largely because he has his brother Frank at his side. Frank was injured early last year, so Andy had to compete without their best weapon. Having him back and healthy is a big advantage.
It is very hungry after last year, and it showed in the trial of his team respectable team is time to show. It may coincide with Contador in the mountains, and the individual time trial – a weakness – something he has been working hard. He is only four seconds behind the leader at this point – a margin of irrelevant. It is very well established, and I think represents a good value at this price.
The rest – There are many serious candidates, but frankly I do not think either is the challenge of beating the two unless there are problems. Cadel Evans has started well and has a good team behind him, so worth a bit of a look at 08.01, and Bradley Wiggins has focused hard on his climbing and could be interesting at 22 / 1. I cannot look beyond Schleck, however.
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